US Dollar

For those who trade currency, US dollar has walked out a long-term low and will march higher all the way to catch Euro in the next few years…

10/30/2009 intraday update

12:37am

the magical yellow circle speaks for itself…

 

10/29/2009 intraday update

2:46pm

wave 4 has reached 38.2% retracement and it’s a good level for wave 4 here.  another leg down to 1000 region is coming soon…

 

 

2:09pm

retracement will not exceed the white line

 

 

 

1:09pm

this correction is not a surprise and I expect it will fade from 1062 here…

How S&P 500 relates to the dollar

An article from a stock forum

I have talked quite a bit of late about the market internals of the S&P 500, and last week I flagged a concern that overall breadth had been deteriorating in the index as its price was rising. This suggested that very few stocks were pulling the index higher, with the majority of them losing ground each day.
That has led us to today, where we are getting a test down to the 50-day moving average. This is an important uptrend support line proxy for the entire move off the March lows and therefore its ability to come through a test on the upside is key for the bullish thesis.
Beyond the S&P 500, the U.S. Dollar Index has also been experiencing a test of its own. This time however, that test is the mirror opposite of the S&P 500, as you can see by the graph.
The 50-day moving average in both cases is important. We can quite easily see the inverse correlation between the way the dollar moves and the S&P 500 moves. The dollar now is coming up to its 50-day moving average, which, in opposition to the S&P 500, is acting as a downtrend resistance line.
So far in both cases, when the moving average is touched and tested, the asset in question reacts away from the line in the opposite direction.
In the case of the S&P 500, price goes up while the dollar goes down. As we can see from the graphs, although the correlation is not perfect, this inverse directional relationship is important nonetheless between the two assets.
A big potential trend change for both indexes would be if the respective 50-day moving averages are broken. If that happens, we could see a reversal for both assets--a lower S&P 500 and a higher dollar.
(Chart data provided by Thomson Reuters)

bear’s glory is back?

My account has not increased like this for a long long time, but i still need a few more days like this to get my account back to all time high as in this June.  i’ve been doing the short-stop out-short-stop out thing ever since then…

 

I don’t think there will be any meaningful rebounce before 980-1000.  any price above 1000 is a good one for building the mid/long term positions.  this dip has a long way to go.

 

today SPX broke the midterm trendline and this is very meaningful for bears…

Take EWI as standard

When this rally since March just started, I hold a even bearish view than EWI and believe even the wave 1 of C has not finished yet.  Now I tend to agree that EWI is correct.  for midterm and long term, my view of the market is in line with the EWI, so i will not redraw something on my own here.  just paste a most recent figure from EWI and all I want to say is within this figure…

 

btw, since this is the first time I copy a figure from EWI on my blog, i hope i will not get sued for this… :)

10/23/2009 intraday update

3:33pm

SPX 2mins chart.  the trendline has been tested three times and is this going to hold this time?

 

 

2:13pm

has not update for a while… the rally annoyed me a lot :)  i think it’s finally over… this morning’s top should be finish of a small wave 2.  will update a chart later.