USD in the box

consolidation will take more time…

 

APPL put

No update on stock market for past two weeks.  Not a single position or trade in stock/option for past 10 days and I am so glad to see SPY has been up in row for 14 days!  In any measure, this up move is close to be exhausted.

 

I load slight APPL April 230 put at the end of day @ 10.1.   Considering Asian market is flying high right now, this move could be a a little premature.  let’s see.  I simply love the fact that AAPL is outperformed by QQQQ in a up day and both 60min and 5min trendline is broken.

 

 

 

Something I am not consistent with myself is that i closed the last UCD long positions tonight and naked short on USD right now.  EUR/USD will rebound more if 1.385 is taken out.    however all this move is just a rebound for EUR, it still has a long way to fall…

 

A strange portfolio combination for me.  light position and let stop works its way.

China housing bubble

For these for you can read simple Chinese, here is an apartment with one million USD in Shanghai, not the best area, 5 year old apartment and no decoration anywhere…… http://shanghai.anjuke.com/v2/prop/view/15478906

 

I am not calling the tops for China housing market. the craziness may go on for months or years…  but once China starts collecting property tax on housing, everything is over.   Before a property tax is collected, local government has to stimulate local land prices in various ways to gurantee its yearly income…

China’s housing price curve

a graph I’ve been looking for quite sometime.

 

i believe all of you have heard how the housing price is doubling in Beijing and SHanghai in the past year, 2009.  I know such abnormal behavior is either wave 3, the strongest trend wave or wave 5, the final push.  it sees that the later more appropriate in the chart below…

 

However, you can hardly tell how the wave plays out, extended or not… the key info from the chart is that once the push up is over, it’s going to be the top for a long long time……

 

3/3/2010 market review

USD is in a healthy correction last two days as I expected early this week, GBP and EUR both retraced around 300 pips.  Again, when everyone say USD is strong, you need to be careful.  I believe lots of stops have been taken out and then the real drop is coming… :)

 

The weakest pair is GBP/USD right now and I expect this pair will make record low this year, below 1.3.  British will go severe recession in next few years and it started with the Pound.

 

As a hedge, you can long some EUR or AUS now.

 

For the stock market, I know lots of my bear comrade are turning bull now, lots of…   this is also what i’ve been expecting ever since the rally starts…  time will tell soon…

short MTL

@23.54

USD may consolidate for a while

when everyone starts saying EUR and GBP is over, we need to be cautious.

 

I agree with the statements, but it will not happen in a straight shot.  some weak hand must be shake off before a more bloody drop…

 

some prepare for some range trading ahead…