Elliott wave: trading the elliott wave

1. General         

The Elliott Wave Principle provides you with the most objective and disciplined method available for trading. Only a handful of patterns exist, sometimes easy to recognize especially in strong impulsive waves. The still validated patterns tell you where the market is heading, in what way (or structure) this will happen and under what circumstances the pattern will produce a stronger probability. Also the pattern will tell you when it is no longer valid due to the occurrence of an intolerable price action. This makes it possible to exactly determine your entry and exit points, which is an outstanding characteristic of the Elliott Wave Principle.

The key to forecasting markets lies in determining the probabilities of alternative scenarios. We do all that work for you, with our daily personalized chart service. If we find several alternative counts pointing in the same direction, we have found an excellent trading opportunity.

Some people, mainly those who can not successfully apply the Elliott Wave Principle themselves, will tell you either it is too complex and subjective or that the waves don�t exists at all, suggesting the market follows a random pattern.

Obviously the Elliott Wave Principle can get very complex- especially in corrective waves- since you will have to look for patterns, which contain patterns, which contain patterns etc. etc. But it will never lose its objectivity if you apply the rules and guidelines. The only problem is that sometimes it is not totally clear if the internal structure of a wave is a 3 wave or a 5 wave. In that case you will have to determine alternatives for both internal wave structures and look for other confirmations, such as channels, indicators and Fibonacci ratios.

Below we mention the key steps for Elliott Wave analysis and supply basic trading patterns to search for.

2. General directives for trading          

Now you can use our daily personalized chart service, to trade profitably. The more probable an outcome the better the opportunities. The more the alternatives point in the same direction the more certain that the market will move accordingly.
Our daily analysis will generate an ever objective and consistent wave count for you and will always present the most probable outcome first, through applying objective rules and guidelines and through implementing a true Elliott Wave model.

Those who really would like to learn the Elliott Wave Principle must study the ins and outs. In the following, we offer some directives. These directives come from our own experience as well as from many publications on this subject. Of course every trader or analyst should find his own path to success.

Study the patterns mentioned under the section "Basic theory"

• Know the rules and guidelines.
• Learn the internal structure of the patterns, which will enable you to recognize a pattern within a pattern.
• Remember that only waves 1,3,5, A and C can be impulsive waves.
• All other waves are corrective, against the trend, and show overlap in their internal structure.

Design alternative scenarios by labeling a chart

1. Start labeling a chart by taking into account the following rules and guidelines:

• Separate impulses from corrections, an impulse normally shows acceleration and no overlap, a correction shows a sideways pattern.
• Waves of the same degree should have the same proportions, which is especially important for waves 2 and 4. A minuscule 4th wave cannot belong to a big wave 2 and so on.
• Wave 2 can never retrace more than 100% nor go beyond the origin of wave 1.
• Wave 3 normally is the longest wave and shows the most powerful acceleration.
• In wave 3 there is never an overlap between wave 4 and 1, as occurs in fifth waves (and first or A waves.
• Label the big picture, is it a three or a five?
• Label more in detail, by labeling the smaller wave degrees initially, then go back to the large wave degrees, changing your labels if necessary.
• Check if the required internal structure of your waves, comply with the rules and guidelines. For example a B wave never can consist of five waves and so on.
• Check if the internal structure of the internal structure is correct. For example an (expanded) Flat consists of a 3 wave, again a 3 wave and a 5-wave structure. If this is not true, change your labeling.
• Check your wave count for alternation, especially with waves 2 and 4. If wave 2 showed a simple Zigzag, wave 4 should show a complex pattern.
• A corrective pattern mostly minimally carries into the territory of the 4th wave of the previous impulse wave.
• Within a 5-wave impulse, two waves will tend to equality. If wave three is the longest, wave 5 will tend to equality with wave 1.
• Use momentum indicators and volume to support your wave labeling. Wave 3 should have the highest momentum and volume (if it is the longest wave).
• Calculate the Fibonacci relationships. If your wave count reveals a lot of reasonable Fibonacci ratios, you have found an interesting count.
• Draw channels and determine if your wave count more or less fits these channels. The better the fit, the better the count.

1. Design as many scenarios as the Wave Principle allows, with regard to the wave degree or time frame you are analysing.
2. Do the same for shorter and longer time frames (or lower and higher wave degrees) and try to narrow down alternatives by fitting them to a multiple of wave degrees.
3. Assess the probabilities of these scenarios by studying their compliance with the permitted internal wave structure, the outcome of the Fibonacci ratios and the fit of the channels.
4. Draw the expected price action and pattern of each scenario you have designed, mark price levels where you get signals to enter or exit the market.

Design a trading system

• Determine what time frame (or wave degree) you would like to trade.
• Determine which patterns and alternative wave counts give the best trading opportunities, such as when several alternatives all produce a price movement in the same direction.
• Determine objective entry points based on patterns.
• Determine objective exit points, also based on patterns. You should for example exit a trade when a price movement makes your preferred wave count invalid.

Control your emotions

• Don�t be afraid to take a loss if your stop gets hit. This means you will have to admit you were wrong on this trade. Don�t be afraid of loosing the (little) profit you have made and only exit if your system or wave analysis tells you to.
• Follow the rules of the Elliott Wave Principle and don�t second-guess the market. Believe what the charts tell you, your stop will protect you.
• Of course there will be loosing trades, a 100% score is impossible. But if you limit your losses (by executing your stop) and let your profits run, you should be very successful. So maintain your discipline and learn from all trades.

3. Trading example       

Theory

In this section you will be shown how to recognize an impulsive wave from a corrective wave. In the same way as these basic patterns are compared and analysed here, you can do it yourself with all other patterns.

Suppose the market has experienced a big sell off. From the low it starts to rise. Wave 1 (or A) and wave 2 (or B) have been completed and the market starts to rise again. The first picture shows two scenarios possible, either an impulse (1,2,3) or an A,B,C correction. The pictures thereunder demonstrate which price action to expect in an impulse or in a correction:

The pattern can be an impulse only if the 4th wave does not overlap the first, a level indicated by the horizontal "stop" line. As soon as the price drops under this line- before wave 5 has been completed- you have your first signal of a pending correction (picture above at the right). This correction will be confirmed when the price drops under the origin of wave C, which is the end of wave B. Provided it doesn�t drop under the "confirmation" line, it could still be an extended 3rd wave that subdivides. In that case the C or 3 wave is only wave 1 of the third wave! You will find the pattern called extension under the chapter "Patterns".

Practice

Now we will try to apply the theory above in practice, step by step.

In the previous graph you have already recognized a structure consisting of three waves. Because there are three waves, we are dealing with a correction, which is a movement against the trend. Therefore the long-term trend is up and a new high will be reached.

Underneath will be shown what happened next. Basically there are two scenarios which could develop. Firstly the correction could be terminated at point C and (2), finishing a Single Zigzag. Secondly a Flat or Expanded Flat could be developing. Then this market at the minimum will reach its high in a 3-wave structure, decline again to approximately point C and (2). Thereafter the larger uptrend will resume and the market will reach uncharted territory.

With the above in mind it is crucial to determine if the rise will have the form of a 3 wave or a 5 wave. Let�s take a look at the picture:

To conclude, let�s take a look at the following price action:

By just looking at its form- the pattern has no overlap, you can tell this definitely is a 5 wave, not a 3 wave and indeed it reached the old high at 3000.

This 5- wave is the first wave of a larger wave degree, also composed of five waves. Therefore a minimal price increase of 25% (the same as wave 1) for the larger wave 3 can be calculated, which projects a target of approximately 4000.

Since the above chart displays the price action of the Dow Jones, we all know what happened. The market corrected a bit, accelerated again and met a major resistance at 4000 as the following picture demonstrates. Around 4000 again a correction developed, indicating that the main trend was still up and projecting even higher targets.

The same patterns evolve over and over again, enabling you to forecast the markets and explain what happened afterwards.

4. Simple, but effective trading strategy         

Since all patterns or their sub patterns are either 3 wave or 5 wave structures, it follows that at the minimum always three waves will occur, no matter what happens.

Therefore if you concentrate on the 3rd wave, which will be a wave 3 in an impulse or wave C in a correction, you have a strong probability of making a profit.

The charts in the following pictures give an example of this strategy in a rising, as well as a declining market.

 

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Five Fatal Flaws of Trading

by Elliott Wave International's senior instructors Jeffrey Kennedy

 

Why Do Traders Lose?

 

If you’ve been trading for a long time, you no doubt have felt that a monstrous, invisible hand sometimes reaches into your trading account and takes out money. It doesn’t seem to matter how many books you buy, how many seminars you attend or how many hours you spend analyzing price charts, you just can’t seem to prevent that invisible hand from depleting your trading account funds.
Which brings us to the question: Why do traders lose? Or maybe we should ask, 'How do you stop the Hand?' Whether you are a seasoned professional or just thinking about opening your first trading account, the ability to stop the Hand is proportional to how well you understand and overcome the Five Fatal Flaws of trading. For each fatal flaw represents a finger on the invisible hand that wreaks havoc with your trading account.

 

 

Fatal Flaw No. 1 – Lack of Methodology
If you aim to be a consistently successful trader, then you must have a defined trading methodology, which is simply a clear and concise way of looking at markets. Guessing or going by gut instinct won’t work over the long run. If you don’t have a defined trading methodology, then you don’t have a way to know what constitutes a buy or sell signal. Moreover, you can’t even consistently correctly identify the trend.
How to overcome this fatal flaw? Answer: Write down your methodology. Define in writing what your analytical tools are and, more importantly, how you use them. It doesn’t matter whether you use the Wave Principle, Point and Figure charts, Stochastics, RSI or a combination of all of the above. What does matter is that you actually take the effort to define it (i.e., what constitutes a buy, a sell, your trailing stop and instructions on exiting a position). And the best hint I can give you regarding developing a defined trading methodology is this: If you can’t fit it on the back of a business card, it’s probably too complicated.

 

 

Fatal Flaw No. 2 – Lack of Discipline
When you have clearly outlined and identified your trading methodology, then you must have the discipline to follow your system. A Lack of Discipline in this regard is the second fatal flaw. If the way you view a price chart or evaluate a potential trade setup is different from how you did it a month ago, then you have either not identified your methodology or you lack the discipline to follow the methodology you have identified. The formula for success is to consistently apply a proven methodology. So the best advice I can give you to overcome a lack of discipline is to define a trading methodology that works best for you and follow it religiously.

 

 

Fatal Flaw No. 3 – Unrealistic Expectations
Between you and me, nothing makes me angrier than those commercials that say something like, "...$5,000 properly positioned in Natural Gas can give you returns of over $40,000..." Advertisements like this are a disservice to the financial industry as a whole and end up costing uneducated investors a lot more than $5,000. In addition, they help to create the third fatal flaw: Unrealistic Expectations.
Yes, it is possible to experience above-average returns trading your own account. However, it’s difficult to do it without taking on above-average risk. So what is a realistic return to shoot for in your first year as a trader – 50%, 100%, 200%? Whoa, let’s rein in those unrealistic expectations. In my opinion, the goal for every trader their first year out should be not to lose money. In other words, shoot for a 0% return your first year. If you can manage that, then in year two, try to beat the Dow or the S&P. These goals may not be flashy but they are realistic, and if you can learn to live with them – and achieve them – you will fend off the Hand.

 

 

Fatal Flaw No. 4 – Lack of Patience
The fourth finger of the invisible hand that robs your trading account is Lack of Patience. I forget where, but I once read that markets trend only 20% of the time, and, from my experience, I would say that this is an accurate statement. So think about it, the other 80% of the time the markets are not trending in one clear direction.
That may explain why I believe that for any given time frame, there are only two or three really good trading opportunities. For example, if you’re a long-term trader, there are typically only two or three compelling tradable moves in a market during any given year. Similarly, if you are a short-term trader, there are only two or three high-quality trade setups in a given week.
All too often, because trading is inherently exciting (and anything involving money usually is exciting), it’s easy to feel like you’re missing the party if you don’t trade a lot. As a result, you start taking trade setups of lesser and lesser quality and begin to over-trade.
How do you overcome this lack of patience? The advice I have found to be most valuable is to remind yourself that every week, there is another trade-of-the-year. In other words, don’t worry about missing an opportunity today, because there will be another one tomorrow, next week and next month ... I promise.
I remember a line from a movie (either Sergeant York with Gary Cooper or The Patriot with Mel Gibson) in which one character gives advice to another on how to shoot a rifle: 'Aim small, miss small.' I offer the same advice in this new context. To aim small requires patience. So be patient, and you’ll miss small."

 

 

Fatal Flaw No. 5 – Lack of Money Management
The final fatal flaw to overcome as a trader is a Lack of Money Management, and this topic deserves more than just a few paragraphs, because money management encompasses risk/reward analysis, probability of success and failure, protective stops and so much more. Even so, I would like to address the subject of money management with a focus on risk as a function of portfolio size.
Now the big boys (i.e., the professional traders) tend to limit their risk on any given position to 1% - 3% of their portfolio. If we apply this rule to ourselves, then for every $5,000 we have in our trading account, we can risk only $50-$150 on any given trade. Stocks might be a little different, but a $50 stop in Corn, which is one point, is simply too tight a stop, especially when the 10-day average trading range in Corn recently has been more than 10 points. A more plausible stop might be five points or 10, in which case, depending on what percentage of your total portfolio you want to risk, you would need an account size between $15,000 and $50,000.
Simply put, I believe that many traders begin to trade either under-funded or without sufficient capital in their trading account to trade the markets they choose to trade. And that doesn’t even address the size that they trade (i.e., multiple contracts).
To overcome this fatal flaw, let me expand on the logic from the 'aim small, miss small' movie line. If you have a small trading account, then trade small. You can accomplish this by trading fewer contracts, or trading e-mini contracts or even stocks. Bottom line, on your way to becoming a consistently successful trader, you must realize that one key is longevity. If your risk on any given position is relatively small, then you can weather the rough spots. Conversely, if you risk 25% of your portfolio on each trade, after four consecutive losers, you’re out all together.
Break the Hand’s Grip

 

Trading successfully is not easy. It’s hard work ... damn hard. And if anyone leads you to believe otherwise, run the other way, and fast. But this hard work can be rewarding, above-average gains are possible and the sense of satisfaction one feels after a few nice trades is absolutely priceless. To get to that point, though, you must first break the fingers of the Hand that is holding you back and stealing money from your trading account. I can guarantee that if you attend to the five fatal flaws I’ve outlined, you won’t be caught red-handed stealing from your own account.