3:36pm
market breaks out the consolidation zone to the upside. but usually the first break out is the false break. let’s see how this one develops…
2:37pm
just come back. market is still within the consolidation zone. it’s planning something big here.
1:23pm
I will be out for 1 hour. the chart is good so far. stop is the upper boundary of box if you short.
1:04pm
a good short entry on 1 min chart
3:55pm
We will close today’s trading in 5 mins and bulls are well in control today. Is this the quarter-end window’s dressing and we have to see the true color of the market next month?
2:04pm
Market break down 50ema first time today, let’s see if it will hold.
In the past two weeks, markets gapped down on Monday and went lower. so will third time be different?
SPX: this chart is posted here two weeks ago when market is at the cross of red & green lines and I said I do not believe market has the strength to take out so many resistance level without a pullback. now top is already in for the market and we can go down dramatically from here anytime. the best case for bull is to retest the red line and kiss bye from there; good case for bear is we start falling from here right on Monday.
Market will retest March 666 lows at least in this down wave. this may sounds ridiculous for many, but i am so get used to this… i shared this idea with a friend in a wedding last weekend at his request, then the whole talk after that become his bullish announcement. He tried to save me from potential huge loss and convince me how good opportunity it is right now to buy and hold BAC and WFC for next 5 years. I really do not have as much “facts” as he is having, like Obama policy, 401K effect, investor confidence level etc… my only evidence is my chart. my chart told me at the end of the Feb that a huge rebound is coming while all the “facts” are saying market will never look back… now my chart is saying financial sector will be very bloody again in the next few months and at least a few top 20 commercial banks will be removed from the trading list (nationalized).
let’s just take a look at XLF: XLF again finished the topping process a few weeks before the SPX and now is kicking off the start of wave 5. Since wave 4 only retraces a small percentage of wave 3, i expect wave 5 will not be a truncated wave and at least take out the previous low.
institution ACC/DIS chart is indicating something dramatic is coming… the red line could jump very high from here…
3:56pm
did not have chance to watch market all day. SPX is in green now! will go through charts over the weekend and update here. nice weekend~~~~
11:17am
market is down, but not as violent as i expect.
2:52am
it’s all about MJ tonight. i found myself lost another piece of childhood today…
11:41pm
I am watching MJ’s performance in 1993 NY superbowl. his music and dance will live on…
11:24pm
I did some homework just now and my system indicates tomorrow will be a big day for bears.
1:57pm
“we may revisit 915-920 region in the coming days. don’t be panic if that happens. actually that’s the best entry of short position…” this is we leaved here when market is in 890 region two days ago. so be greedy when others are fear..
1:56pm
short financials and technologies here.
12:21pm
915-920 target reached. add some short positions just now. though target zone reached, the uptrend momentum is strong, so be cautious. do not get your positions too heavy.
3:20pm
half time is over, US lead 1:0. never expect this. Spain has never loss since 2006 in last 34 games and they win last 15 games consecutively…
come back to market, market break down now and high is passed. see where we make the call. i expect some tomorrow or Friday will be very bloody…
2:57pm
wow, US scored first!!! so unexpected…
2:34pm
ESPN US vs Spain
2:23pm
you see how volatile it is after FED meeting? :) truth will be told the 2nd day after major news--- this is a wall st code.
12:06pm
I am leaving for a while. it’s time to load up shorts slowly. may or may not have a final push…
11:13am
yesterday i mentioned we will revisit 915 first before heading down… this is what’s happening now. once we get there, load hard.
4:17pm
it’s indeed a doji pattern, indecisive and can be either way. no break out 200ma intraday. MACD hist has a lower low, means price will follow.
2:13pm
I don’t have much to update. it’s really post-MDD behavior, doji is still likely
1:01pm
we may revisit 915-920 region in the coming days. don’t be panic if that happens. actually that’s the best entry of short position…
11:40am
it’s likely to close a doji after MDD day, watch out.
In the long run, I hold a very positive view towards gold. with the current monetary policy, it’s just a matter of time for Gold to reach $1,500 or higher and the chart supports such a run. However, I believe the trip of gold marching higher will not be that smooth. There are so many people hold the bullish view towards gold like i am doing here, so there must be some volatile movement in the 600-1000 trading region before it finally takes off.
Today GLD broke down a key supporting line and left a big gap behind. I guestimate we will not fill this gap in the coming months and GLD may visit 80 region first before any meaningful move.
this the big picture from IBD today. i believe it will adjust its tune soon after we take out the 880 major support this or next week. I think when bull market starts, it’s OK to follow IBD. just buy leap call and hold them will benefit you well. but in bear market, i think it’s good to follow me :)
“The market seems to be at a crossroads. The uptrend survives, but is under pressure, as per the Market Pulse.
The distribution-day count stands at three for the broad averages.
Higher-volume declines occurring three days last week, plus gains in weak volume Thursday, added to concerns for the market.
Monday's action heightened those concerns.
So how do you handle this market? With caution.
Protect your profits; don't let them turn to losses.
If a stock is acting poorly, this is not the time to give it the benefit of the doubt.
New stock purchases may be OK, but handle with care.
And don't try to anticipate a breakout. That's good advice always, but especially in a defensive market.”
3:58pm
everything as expected. trend day, close at low of the day…
3:27pm
XLF leads the breakdown. SPY will follow.
3:05pm
another proposal, this one is a little bullish. the rebound high will not exceed the 100% line
2:36pm
no rush to close your short positions. a lot more downside to go… this is really just the start… in a trend day, we usually closed at low of the day.
2:18pm
CNBC is saying that energy looks toppy now. but we say the same words 5 days early :)
http://rollinglines.blogspot.com/2009/06/uso_17.html
1:55pm
my view for next two days. someone may say i was wrong, someone may learn a lot from this chart, it’s all about the perspective…
1:48pm
if we close like this today, it’s another MDD. at early stage of a bear market, expect three MDD before a decent rebound…
1:42pm
approaching resistance again. 50ema, yellow line is my favorite…
11:53am
I wrote the intraday note last Friday noon that I am building short positions here. now these shorts are doing really well right now. one of them is JRCC. the downside starts, this one is always the leader. it still has lots of room, just short the next rebound…
11:39am
in celebration right now… you guys should be very familiar right now what is trend day and how it plays out. so just find your favorite sector and build short. a summary chart from google finance, just see how defensive sectors ourperform the rest.
2:24pm
a chart drawn back in early May. It’s my 2nd choice at the time, but market seems like this one. bear’s happy hour is here… :)
when you look at charts, pay attention to levels. there are different time levels in the market. also begin from large time frame and zoom in down to 5min/1min time frame. or you lost the big picture.
Even the chart below can only be regarded as mid level. large level has to be on the monthly basis, if not yearly.
1:34pm
it even disappoints me as a bear. expect bull give another try before fade from here.
12:17pm
market is really weak. it may push above 93 region, but i am building short positions slowly here. Also today is the OE day, some of my friends are playing options expired today. Sounds like there’s 10x, 20x opps everywhere, but i won’t try that…
SPX is now sitting back to the 200ma, a critical juncture for bulls. Though prices has not make a lower low (880 region), momentum already goes before the price. Checked the chart below. Also, negative divergence will leads to further pullback.
Also you guys have witnessed our intraday wave count and where we are now in the market. After this short-lived corrective wave is done, we will see sharp selloff coming.
Let’s take a quick look at the sectors. you may easily identify three strong white bars out of nine sectors below, right? All of them are defensive sectors! big money is looking for safety now and this rally won’t go anywhere.
8:46pm
if gap up big tomorrow, it’s a good short entry opportunity.
Though this corrective wave has not finished the 50% retracement in price, it has finished that in time… sometimes price and time can replace each other……
3:07pm
the market is even weaker than i thought. next week will definitely be “wahahaaaa” time for bears… :) will be out for rest of the day. today tomorrow is the OE day, expect it to be wild…
2:44pm
uptrend lost the momentum. let’s see how this consolidation plays out…
1:01pm
back to the track now…
11:58am
11:06am
one more thing before i leave for a while. 38.2% and 50% retracement are both potential reverse point for wave c. my target drawn here is based on my own system.
11:03am
Very often, wave C accelerates to the target and has we may see a sharper slope here. but i can not tell at this moment. only market can tell.
10:58am
No surprise yet, right? :)
3:41pm
my preferred count. Original drawing yesterday is enclosed in the graph…
3:03pm
very short term, uptrend is not violated. not short entry yet. could be sometime tomorrow or Friday.
1:55pm
i don’t think you felt panic as a bear when you saw the last half hour rally. it’s all right, just hold on and we are not there yet……
1:38pm
upside correction will last for a while. i will let you know when we get into the short zone. 2nd entry is the best entry point…
12:58pm
our wave structure is nothing wrong. but i am not sure a corrective is done here. if so, that’s really a short one.
12:29pm
1min chart. potential wave development.
12:04pm
covered BAC. $1.5 profit in three days. still has other short position real time posted on trading blog.
11:46am
even you know there may be a rebound coming, you don’t not to dip in longs here. Play on one side is much safer. just a remind…
11:39am
the subwave may not have finished yet and we will see another small down leg to 90.5 region.
11:21am
no surprise from the market. everything fits into our plan. we will see some reversal from here. some people may buy dip and call bull market continues, but time will prove, this is a bull trap…
6:38am
Now future indicates a tiny gap down. the chances of filling the gap will be very high if market open here.
USO is inch away from my target posted weeks ago. but it may not be there this time. two reversal bars already with today a gap down. very topping graph.
5:41pm
OK, i am back now. there is surprise with the market and it’s getting closer to our zone. A gap down tomorrow will fit everything into my plan well…
The friend i met is a doctor (not my Ph.D. kind of doctor, but really a doctor that see patient) and he has been trading for years. He showed me his account on Ameritrade today and you know what, he is doing really good in the past three months… account doubled and almost no losing trade in closed transaction. he strongly recommend the software he used “Vecter Vest”. I’ve never used this one before and believe it won’t be fitted to my style. but in case you are looking for something, it may worth trying.
2:36pm
Nothing much right now. market is heading to our target smoothly. I will see a friend in about half hour later, so may not update here till market close. will update then.
1:32pm
no rebound at all. bears quite in control. major wave structure is here. a larger time scale than the one i usually posted here.
1:04pm
perfect wave structure. We may see some reversals from here. sell TWM @ 43.83, $2 in the pocket, will buy back. I will leave BAC and one other short for a while. at beginning stage of drop off, there is going to be some shake off action. be cautious bear.
12:39pm
new target, not far though
12:34pm
Target reached. but this wave may further extend after some consolidation here. wave 5 is extend and now we are in 5 (3).
12:18pm
Quick idea:
11:54am
To indentify good entry point, we need to focus on both time and space. As you see from the 1 min chart below, yellow marks are my projected moves in early trading hours. It seems that space wise, i am doing very good, both low and high are right on my target, but time wise, I am 3 hours early. I have to say, timing is more important. Dow will visit 7000 or 10000 eventually, but key question is which first … :)
11:17am
look at the solar sector, LDK, YGE, STP etc. i’ve mentioned weeks ago that “if there is any sector i wanna to go long, it will be solar”.
11:12am
the day after MDD most likely closed as a doji. so the best strategy is either 1) no action; or 2) sell on rally & buy on dip... very short term trade, not for swing. also my coin system says it’s up day: http://rollinglines.blogspot.com/2009/06/coin-prediction-0615-0619.html
Both SPY and XLF have sell signal generated today. In the weekend review I wrote “I do not believe market has the strength to break above the multi resistance level without any consolidation. also Monday, 6/15, is an important time level that could lead to a big reversal.” We indeed see a sharp selloff today and it forms a MDD.
This is the beginning of a new down leg, so build the midterm short positions slowly. At the early stage, market can be very choopy.
A little more charts are added to the trading blog for subscribers.
Technology is still the strongest sector and health care the weakest one. financials are sitting on the 50ma right now.
one thing need to be noted is that XLF topped already in early May.
4:01pm
the day is over. today is the MDD. if you do not know what is a MDD, check this post below.
Commodity looks toppy and transport is leading the down. Financials are weak and our BAC shorts are working well now.
3:22pm
50ema finally touched. Some readers may know that i like to enter positions on 50ema rather than 20ema. it’s like in a boxing game, when opponent is fully extended, it is the best time to send out your punch…
3:11pm
The only question remains is if we have a sharp rebound in last 30 minutes. i see some people are still expecting that happen. usually in trend day, it close at LOD.
1:58pm
this is the most bearish case…
1:48pm
For those not familiar with what a major distribution day (MDD) is, here is the chart. when $NYDNV:$NYUPV > 9, people call it a MDD. Now the reading is 17, so if we close now, it’s a MDD. There are many “rules” about MDD, we can talk about it later…
1:45pm
range bound scenario plays out. Bears completely in control so far. let’s see if we have a major distribution day here.
1:00pm
1st resistance @ 20ema. i think bulls should break higher from here to the 93 zone.
12:54pm
Another intraday scenario is that we are having a range bound here. This is a very bearish sign since no real rebound and we can still test 20/50ema resistance.
It’s need to be noted that this is only intraday discussion. my midterm view never changed…
12:39pm
1st target reached. next 2 hours will be good for bears.
12:14pm
my thoughts for today.
12:07pm
another H&S pattern for EUR/USD. target 1.3
11:59am
bulls, don’t expect the gap today get filled soon. sell next rebound and get exit.
11:55am
11:35am
potential trend day. short at every rebound to the key resistance line. period.
12:56am
Futures are off 5 points now and dollars are strong. Tomorrow could be the day for bears.
A simple chart for this weekend. I do not believe market has the strength to break above the multi resistance level without any consolidation. also Monday, 6/15, is an important time level that could lead to a big reversal. Of course, it can be one day off the chart, so if we indeed see the reversal Tuesday again, do not surprise.
Also next week is the OE week. June is big month for options and many leaped calls will be expired. Both equity and index put/call ration has been staying in a very low range for the past three months. Option mm have to do something next week, or their loss on the calls they wrote could be a horrible number.
Ending diagonal is still my current view and i tend to believe 1) market peak is 6/11; 2) the peak is next Tuesday and we reverse at the end of that trading day. I prefer 1 more.
One more daily chart below: momentum negative divergence and volume is fading. This rally won’t sustain any more.
EWI has a different count, just paste below for your reference.
5:47pm
market closed with little gain. will post a weekend summary tomorrow. Good weekend, guys…
2:34pm
VIX has a sharp pop up right after my post. any news?
2:28pm
the market is more than boring… SPX and VIX is down at the same time. If we closed the week like this, next monday will not favor bears. I guess something big is coming. BB is tightening now…
2:05pm
reentered BAC short @13.74, give it one more try here.
2:00pm
bulls stand above the key resistance. cover BAC, at least keep my 10 cents profit ~~
1:30pm
A bear’s view on the market. it will be totally different from a bull’s perspective… :P
1:25pm
Today’s leader BAC is retesting the 50ema. let’s see what will happen. I entered the short position half hour ago and stop is slightly higher than today’s top…
1:03pm
hold it or break it
12:38pm
Everything is fine with bears right now. Every attack from bulls have been pullback before the 50ema on 5min chart. a very good sign for bears. expect more down from here.
The original post is here http://rollinglines.blogspot.com/2009/06/ending-diagonal.html
Today’s fake pop gets well into the short zone…
