Last week’s dramatic move turn many of my bear comrade into bull’s camp, as a super bear and I will hold my side and wait for the glory of the bears. :)
In the long term, there is no doubt we are in a super bear market. Any number in the SPX 900 range is a luxury years later…
For the midterm, indeed many possibilities are available at the current stage of the market.
In the short term, we will see a pullback for sure based on the current overbought condition. 200 daily EMA is within inches and I don’t think bulls can take that out in the 1st time. The retracement level will decide the midterm scenario. My primary view is that we will still in a irregular a-b-c wave 2 correction and wave 3 will start very soon early next week, either Monday or Tuesday, leading the market down to 820 region as a initial stop. In this way, H&S pattern is still valid and just a little tilted like mine :)
For the 2nd scenario, bulls are wild. everything is in the chart below. As I said, new high is the criteria to define this one…
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